AI task time horizon
METR's measure of the length of task, in human working time, that a model completes with 50% reliability; about one hour for frontier models in March 2025, doubling roughly every seven months.
- Introduced
- 2025-03all 2025 milestones
- Doubling time
- ≈7 months (2019–2025)
Linked from
More concepts & methods
- machine learningscientific study of algorithms and statistical models that computer systems use to perform tasks without explicit instructions
- deep learningspecialized form of machine learning that uses artificial neural networks to identify patterns in data
- genetic algorithmcompetitive algorithm for searching a problem space
- Altitude, depth and rangeFelix Rieseberg’s framework for ambition with AI models: speed repeats work faster, altitude targets outcomes, depth uses expert instruments and range combines disciplines.
- Outcome-based promptingAsking an AI agent to pursue a specified change for a user or system, with evidence and boundaries, instead of merely producing a named deliverable.
- AI outside judgeAn acceptance check outside an agent’s self-assessment, such as a deterministic test, held-out evaluation, measurement or separately briefed reviewer.